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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (51407)	4/15/2001 10:56:30 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 77399

Mindmeld: Yes and No and Who cares. yes, Internet will grow phenomenally. Just like radio and TV and telecommunications grew phenomenally and even beyond the wildest expectations in 1929. No there is no stronger competitor to CSCO. Just like there was no stronger competitor to RCA in 1929 either. And both questions are completely, dangerously irrelevant with respect to purchase price of CSCO as an investment. Just like it was with RCA back in 1929. But just to be sure you still don't see this, I will make it blindingly obvious Would you buy a $20 bill for $100? If the answer is yes, then we are indeed at fundamental disagreement. I am presuming that your answer would be "no". So, you have somebody offering to sell you a certified genuine US $ bill, stuffed into an envelope. I apologize if this is too presumptious of me, but I thought the important discussion before saying yes or no would surround (a) what numbers are printed on the bill, and (b) what price you would have to pay for the envelope. So, all I am asking is what you think the economic prospects are for the business, and to substantiate these prospects, and quantify them in terms of dollars per share. Because sooner or later the economic value of a company and the price of its equity converge to parity. John.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (51407)	4/15/2001 11:01:41 AM
From: Jimbo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77399

mindmeld - read your post with interest - I agree with the majority of your opinions - particularly CSCO coming clean and righting their balance sheet - however to say once everything is exposed there will be smooth sailing is a bit naive - CSCO has several issues ahead - the largest of with is a total reinvention of its own business. Since Judy Estrin left they have yet to hire a strong CIO, somewhat disturbing. Mike Volpi the wunderkind of acquisitions has never been in such an environment the task at hand being to turn this company around. Chambers is no engineer but a very skilled businessman. They have become bloated with respect to their acquisitions - too many desparate technologies, too many employees - a period of belt tightening and quit possible more devisting of non-profitable business lines has just begun - all this will take time. As an investor - you need to ask the question does CSCO's management have the smarts to pull all of this off. Over the past year everyone and I mean everyone has predicted the demise of this company. I think the jury is still out. Just some random thoughts !