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To: B.REVERE who wrote (67657)4/15/2001 12:51:22 PM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 116762
 
I don't see the recent yield spike as having much to due with the economy bottoming either. If you read the rest of the Prudent Bear piece he hits on the theme I keep harping on: there is a huge speculative bet (including gold carry trades) that bond yields are going way down as part of massive deflation. That bet will be wrong. Second, there is a big stagflation problem developing. Demand may be falling, but costs are increasing. Many businesses are going to attempt to pass that on, and if they can't they will close or downsize. The notion that everybody just carries and conducts business at a loss is not how the real economy works. The equation will be to get rid of marginal customers that are unprofitable anyway and focus on pushing prices up enough to make money on the cream.