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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale_laroy who wrote (35800)	4/15/2001 1:25:38 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

dale: 1. ) "Which is hugely incorrect, flat to down, or no loss in market share?" INTC will be lucky to ship 26 million processors in Q1...Flat to down in Q2 is a given, imho...No INTC loss in market share in Q2 is a huge (and error prone, imho) assumption as the price/performance gap, on average, in favour of AMD widens in Q2 with the intro of palomino family processors and as entry level is raised to 1 gig! 2. "Q2 will see flat to moderately rising volume, with sightly rising Intel market share relative to AMD, but possibly losing overall as Via enters the picture...." Wrong, imho...INTC won't ship more than 26 million processors in Q2!!! 3. "Intel's big problem in Q2 will be very rapidly eroding ASP and margin." Correct, imho...So much so, that INTC could see red ink in Q2, perhaps a flood of red ink, if the currently decelerating gross margins (currently 51% vs 63% in Q4 by most accounts) do not abate...Another 10 point plus decline in gross margins in Q2 would certainly result in losses at levels more than enough to offset any profits that INTC will report in Q1!!! And if entry level is 1 gig by the end of Q2 and if the mobile pony proves to be a superior adversary in Q2, P3 margins could easily decline by 50, not 10 points, over Q2, if current P3 ASP of $175 is anywhere near accurate!!!