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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DRBES who wrote (35815)	4/15/2001 3:13:04 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

DRBES: 1. "So what! Will it put a drag on AMD? Probably only in the short term. In the longer view (that which really counts) it will finalize the process, now well under way, of permanently decoupling the two issues." Agreed!!! Any drag on AMD, if in fact occurring, might well be very short term if AMD can demonstrate on Wednesday, flat sequential revenues vis a vis INTC's negative 10% to 20% revenue decline and if AMD can post an eps at least 2 times that of INTC!!! (By the way, both are highly probable outcomes imo!). 2. I now find myself more optimistic and BOMBASTIC than you. What can this mean? How can you be optimistic over the next 2 days in the face of a potential bombshell by INTC on Tuesday??? We have experience as to what is most likely to occurr to the Nas when a "biggy" (i.e CSCO, NT, MOT, etc) disappoint...If INTC comes in at $8 billion or less and $0.25 or less (a given, imo), that can't be good for INTC or for the market in general...If INTC comes in below $7.5 billion and at $0.20 or less, a general bad spell may be unavoidable...If INTC comes in at $7 billion or less and $0.16 or less as a growing number are suggesting, the risk of swift INTC devaluation and its likely ripple effect on almost all others becomes acute imo!!! I just want to reassess based upon what might be a huge negative INTC surprise on Tuesday before I recommit to AMD... That estimated reduction in worldwide demand from 36 million units in Q4 to 30 million units in Q1 in a Bloomberg release on Saturday, if true, suggests a maximum 26 million units shipped by INTC in Q4 and probably closer to 24 million...that is Q1 units shipped may in fact decline by 20% which combined with a 12% decline in gross margins to 51% may incrementally negatively impact Q1 earnings by $1.5 to $2 billion...Add in another incremental decline in sequential earnings of $500 million or more in capital gains which is in Q4 numbers but no longer likely available, and we could see a sequential income decline in excess of $2 billion... A "$2 billion plus" fall off in sequential earnings could make even the current worst case scenario Q1 numbers for INTC of $7 billion in revenues and $0.16 in eps look positively gaudy!!! and that won't be good for anyone, I wouldn't think!!! re: "imho" Do please change this to imo. I have never observed you to be humble, nor do you deserve to be (humble that is).