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Technology Stocks : Global Crossing - GX (formerly GBLX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (10645)	4/15/2001 4:21:37 PM
From: gruetz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15615

Thanks Bill for the reply: I assume that by cash flow positive you mean after cap ex? If so, when do you think that happens? I've seen Grubman state 2004. According to my calcs, cash EBITDA should be $4.1 bln in 2003 assuming 40% pa growth. After interest and dividends that leaves over $2.5 bln. I guess Grubman assumes cap ex will at least be at that level in 2003 if they aren't to become cash flow positive until 2004. Would the approx. $2.5 bln in cap ex, according to my calcs, include or exclude morsels picked up at auction? I still am interested in opinions on the yearly percentage gains in cash rev and cash EBITDA that will make up the 30% and 40% respectively of pa growth over the next 4 or 5 years. I know Robert thinks the numbers for the 5 year time frame are low, but has not yet indicated how the yearly distribution of pa growth looks in his model. I still don't understand why we wouldn't see the greatest growth rate (much greater than 30 or 40 %) from mid 2001 to mid 2002, a period when the competition has not yet completed their network buildouts and GX has (also easier to get larger % incr off of smaller numbers of 2001 than in later years). Another question: Grubman states in a report a few days ago that he expects GX to show some visibility of signing on a couple large corporate customers in the next few months. {This report's main theme BTW was to refute rumours that CZN might not be able to fund its acq of Frontier ILEC due to ratings downgrades.} I wonder why we haven't heard announcements of corp customer signings already. If business is "ROCKING" like Robert's research shows, then shouldn't we have heard something by now? Any reason for GX to keep it quiet until they report? They announced Chicago Stock Exchange, so I would think no reason not to announce others, if they have happened. I hope I am wrong. I know I am impatient.