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To: UnBelievable who wrote (94374)	4/16/2001 6:34:00 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Thanks for the great post. Russell could well seem to be overly pessemistic. I think he will be proven to be otherwise, and I will save this article to read in 5 years time to see how his vision transpires.

To: UnBelievable who wrote (94374)	4/17/2001 8:16:29 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 436258

Interesting comments by Mr. Russell. But I have to ask how productive capacity has grown beyond the needs of the global economy? Afterall, I look around this big blue marble and still see billions of people living in stark poverty, unable to enjoy the benefits that some of the richer nations currently enjoy. That strikes me as a, yet untapped, market opportunity and unrealized pent up demand. So the question is what is preventing this demand from being able to assert itself?? Is it demand saturation, or economic and financial corruption on the part of developing nations? Since 1998, the US has essentially carried the global economic ball, offering willing markets, and accumulating trade deficits which have, in effect, subsidized their economic growth until they were to the point where they could afford or utilize American made products. So what will it take for Asia and Europe to once again restore their internal economic growth (not spurred by exports)?? Or will free trade break down and protectionism take hold again. Or will the world finally form itself into economic trading block, Euro-African, the Americas, and Asia, each waging economic and political war against the other?? (China's play for international "respect" by the US?) As for the DOW hitting 2500, I would be truly amazed to see that happen before we found ourselves in an international war. Such an event would result in such economic turmoil around the world that I couldn't imagine us being at war. Even during WWII, the Dow held rather steady However, I do believe the Dow could retreat down to 8000-8800 before this is all said and done. Primarily because the energy crisis has told us that economic growth cannot be sustained without greater investment in energy infrastructure... We could feasibly be on the verge of a massive rise in the dollar and a retreat into bonds... and then gold... It all depends on how Alan and company handle themselves and this global economic issue. But there will always be places to invest in any market, if even only a bear fund.. :0)