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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HoodBuilder who wrote (38971)	4/16/2001 1:53:55 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

,,,,ahhh finally, reality sets in...michael, I agree with you! ======= Barron's Warns on Semiconductor Market NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Wall Street thought the first quarter was a tough one for semiconductor stocks, the second quarter will ``most certainly be worse,'' according to Alan Abelson, columnist for financial weekly Barron's. Citing recent research on the semiconductor industry from Boston investment research firm Fechtor Detwiler, Abelson argues against the current pervasive sentiment that because semiconductor stocks are now so low there is no place for them to go but up. ``The notion suddenly so popular in Wall Street that the absence of any bookings means things can only get better, for some reason, the firm reports, has utterly failed to reassure the sales reps and distributors who peddle the semis and have been wrestling with a 'bigger issue than inventory overhang,''' Abelson wrote. ``And, wouldn't you know, someone plumb forgot to inform folks in the chip business that pricing pressure has been eliminated,'' he added. Abelson also points to the recent hop in technology stocks, led by such top players as Micron Technology Inc. (NYSE:MU - news), may have been slightly premature, given that other companies are still reporting problems such as significant price pressures and excess inventory, to name a few, and that those issues are not likely to be resolved in the near future. According to the Fechtor Detwiler reporter, Abelson said, STMicroelectronics NV (STM.PA) has offered to beat any competitor's price and guarantee a 30 percent margin to the distributor, a move that can only hurt related companies like ON Semiconductor Corp. (NasdaqNM:ONNN - news), International Rectifier Corp. (NYSE:IRF - news), Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. (NYSE:FCS - news) and Toshiba Corp. (6502.T) He also notes how, according to Fechtor Detwiler, equipment makers such as Sycamore Networks Inc. (NasdaqNM:SCMR - news), Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news), Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE:NT - news) and Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LU - news) have ``gotten the word from their broadband-carrier customers that prices have to be shaved some 40 percent, or they needn't bother wasting their breath asking for new orders.'' ``In brief, on closer inspection, that 'bottom' in semiconductors appears to be nothing more than an optical illusion, a dreadful side effect, no doubt, of going so long without even a morsel of good news,'' Abelson wrote.

To: HoodBuilder who wrote (38971)	4/16/2001 12:14:12 PM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 50167

I plan to use every rally to buy more insurance by way of S&P and Dow Puts and when this market really bottoms I'll have powder to buy. When will that be you ask? My Dow target 8000 +/- and S&P 900, oh yes the Comp will be 1350 or lower. The true test in my mind will be when people no longer want to buy technology stocks, Janus is out of business and people are more willing to hear about Sysco than Cisco! Good post Michael... The fact that so many economists and analysts are looking for a second half rebound, a Contrarian alarm rings in my head that says the crowd is usually wrong... I think we are going to learn a lot from the next bottom test... If the Dow 9600, SPX 1080, and Nasdaq 1800 recent support levels hold we could very well begin a sustained move up in anticipation of a second half turnaround... If we break the recent supports we could very well test the lower levels you mentioned... The Dow is near its 10,200 resistance area... bigcharts.com A breakout sets up a test of the 10,500 area... A breakdown could take the Dow down to the mid to low 9000 area... bigcharts.com IBM and INTC news will play a big part in the Dow's direction for the weeks to come... Jim