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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (5805)	4/16/2001 2:22:42 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

StockOperator Appreciate the work you do. Like you, I was caught off guard by the rally. The signs were there, but I believe I let my view influence my picture. I am no longer bearish, but I am mildly bullish. I cannot buy here as stocks are overbought, but see a lot of signs to reign in my bearish posture. Message 15661781 My Take. Weekly Charts Trend is still Bearish with oscillators at oversold. However momentum remains negative but rising to neutral levels showing some signs of bullish divergences. MACD indicators close to giving buy (cross) signal. Daily Charts Trend is neutral to positive; oscillators are overbought and momentum is positive though some indications of bearish divergences. Very close to short-term EMA crossover.(5D/21D) Lots of stocks/indices are at resistance. 30Y yields surprised me similarly - a break above 5.60% and we are in a different game. As the SPX and NAZ retested or broke their Mar2001 levels, bonds sold off. Scenario 1: Weekly period still holds sway and that we back off from current levels. Looking for a downcross from o/bought levels in daily stochastic. 1.1 Retrace/Retest then rise - my favoured pick. 1.2 Fail retest and head to LTCM levels Scenario 2: We breakout. 2.1 Bull trap 2.2 Off to the moon Either way, I definitely do not allow myself to buy o/bought stocks when the weekly trend is down, and would have to wait for a pullback to join in the fun, or a downcross in daily stochastics to sell. watching and waiting. (Long gold stocks and cash) - macavity

To: StockOperator who wrote (5805)	4/16/2001 10:02:59 AM
From: sam_o	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Stock: The Nikkei looks poised to head higher in a major way. </> How do you think this event will impact the Yen?

To: StockOperator who wrote (5805)	9/4/2001 11:01:37 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Monty, My short statement tonight was not meant to start a pissing match with anyone but I think you should reread the post you highlighted to svenlar. Look at the second sentence and see that at the time I made it I talked about the "setup" in the NIKKEI, which at the time was at a crucial point on the chart. I mentioned that the "setup" may ultimately prove false but that I believed the Japanese market should be watched here closely. A statement I believe to have been no different than any that I have made in the past which are simply made to highlight critical trading points on the charts. Of course we all realize that the NIKKEI has failed miserably at that point but remember that that is only obvious in hindsight now but perhaps would have been more transparent a few months ago when I mentioned that this critical point was worth watching. One of the reasons I have always coined the phrase "do or die" so to speak.