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To: sammaster who wrote (90072)	4/16/2001 10:10:52 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

re: "how was the price of gas so cheap 2 years ago?" .... BINGO ~ The pendulum overswung to the downside & it didn't react quick enough in changing directions either. So; should it surprise us that it "over-swung" to the upside here and that it will be a little slow to change directions once again ? ... sounding kind of like a cyclical sector ? whodathunkit ? Risk vs reward & the time value of money is a concept that the PermaBulls need to re-visit. Look at most cyclical sector cycles. One can ususally exit well, well in advance "timewise" of the ultimate top - and still walk away with 80-90% of the move in many, if not most cycles. The RISK to cyclical investing is very, very "END" weighted. The REWARD to cyclical investing is very, very mid-term weighted. The end of cycle rollover is usually very swift & very violent - few, very few see it coming & they usually occur - (quite contrary to the kollmnhite way of thinking) into STILL positive fundamentals. The euphoria & emotion of positive expectations and investor sentiment usually ALLWAYS drives shareprices ahead of their "true" fundamentals somewhere in the middle of the cycle as well (last spring at OSX 120 ?) and often; if not usually also give a "2nd chance" to exit "near" the tops as investor sentiment & buying the dips often leads to resistance level rallies (hello ?) prior to final rollover - where the dips are no longer met with rallies; but, just more dips; lower & lower - that never come back. So; the $64 question for the chihuahua crowd - is where are we in the cycle... early, mid, or late term ? It's just that simple ~ Because your correct answer to that question will allow you exposure to 80-90% of the reward with only 25-50% of the risk & the wrong answer will expose you to 20% of the rewards with 50-75% of the risk. A clue here; don't watch earnings to determine where shareprices are in the cycle - as history dictates that doesn't work so well - quite the contrary to all the protests of the plastik-fantastik crowd... so; is it actual O&G prices; or "trends" (hint), or is it actual storage levels and/or their "trends" (hint) - given they often "lead" future commodity price directions ? - nahhh; whodathunkthat ? PS: ... dont forget to watch out for those "pendulumns" either - as they can wreak havoc on chihuahua's (VBG). PS S: I DON'T brake for Chihuahua's ~