Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (94482)	4/16/2001 7:44:13 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

what about we just turn down and collapse just as we did in early march off a very similarly strutured rally.... got toast?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (94482)	4/16/2001 8:20:50 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

good post ... obvious == what I was calling "rational" in my post to u last week.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (94482)	4/16/2001 8:23:58 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Very Good Comprehensive Overview of Where We And Where We May Be Going Commercials still net short. The devil is in the details.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (94482)	4/16/2001 8:59:35 AM
From: sammaster	Respond to of 436258

even the great bear of '29 the market bottomed in 3 years although the recession/depression lasted on... i have a feeling that share prices will rapidly fall and reach a low WAY before this entire recession thing plays out...probably early next year? i agree that the depth of the bear will be very great as well but in a shorter time..

To: AllansAlias who wrote (94482)	4/16/2001 9:30:34 AM
From: Andrew G.	Respond to of 436258

AllansAlias : You are so right on here: Worth repeating: "In the wide view, the disregard for fundamentals and lack of respect for the bear at this juncture is astonishing. We are a generation more ignorant of bear market mechanics than any that has come before. Various professional analysts and other serious commentators (some on SI) are suggesting that maybe, just maybe, the worst is behind us. It strikes me that this is the sort of thinking that bear market rallies are supposed to engender. It's nonsense -- this is only beginning."

To: AllansAlias who wrote (94482)	4/16/2001 10:47:44 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

My thoughts? I haven't done a whole lotta market thinking. Damn tax thing. You got this problem in Canuckistan? Anyway, I think you may be placing too much emphasis on the notion that the one-more-push idea has reached consensus. We'll know pretty soon, though; if the Sicko news get bought by the end of the day, then I'd say more bouncing is in order. My problem lately is that the market hasn't been trending downward, and I really don't want to fight it. I just want to bite the middle out of it if it looks to break down again. There's no doubt in my mind that it's time for Old Eco to take another turn in the blender. What part of "we're in a recession" don't people understand? Nice month-long reprieve there. Time to get back to business. Fund flows are key here. Many chased the market up last week; when the little flurry ends, they'll turn back negative again. It felt great not to have the market open last Friday. So much so that I decided it might be a good thing to take a little break, so I stepped a little further onto the sidelines today. I'm afraid I've lost some of my edge lately by trying to anticipate too many of the wiggles. That's your game, not mine. <g> I disagree on the low likelihood that we are repeating 1929-32. Everything I see says that, from the point of view of the financial markets, this is 1931 all over again. My method for determining when trends can fail is fairly simple. A bull market, or a bear market, is like a fire. It burns as long as it has a fuel source. It doesn't spontaneously stop burning in the middle of a log; it runs until it is burned completely. The fuels for a bull market are undervaluation, pessimism, easy money, and earnings growth. The fuels for a bear market are overvaluation, optimism, and tight money. Until we are truly undervalued and the majority of bulls are converted to bears, fuel remains, and the fuel will burn eventually. Got marshmallows? BC