To: Road Walker who wrote (132475 ) 4/16/2001 9:29:58 AM From: andreas_wonisch Respond to of 186894 Morgan Stanley Says Lasting Chip Rally Unlikely Until 3rd-Qtrquote.bloomberg.com By David Wells New York, April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. analyst Mark Edelstone said semiconductor stocks aren't likely to have a ``sustainable'' rally until the third quarter. He cut his 2001 and 2002 earnings per share estimates on Intel Corp., the biggest chipmaker, and reduced his ratings on Xilinx Inc. and Broadcom Corp. The chip business ``will not improve much until the fourth quarter,'' Edelstone wrote in a four-page report to investors. ``A sustainable rally is unlikely to occur until year-over-year revenue growth reaches the expected trough towards the end of the third quarter.'' The call by Edelstone, the top-ranked semiconductor analyst last year in Institutional Investor magazine's annual survey, comes after analyst Jonathan Joseph of Salomon Smith Barney Inc. last week raised his rating on chip shares, saying business was so bad that it was unlikely to get worse. Edelstone cut his 2001 earnings per share estimate on Intel to 45 cents from 60 cents and his 2002 forecast to 60 cents from 80 cents. Intel will ``become more aggressive'' in cutting prices on its Pentium 4 chip to spur demand for personal computers, Edelstone wrote. That will cut Intel's gross margin, he said. He also lowered his earnings estimates, ratings, and target prices for Xilinx and Broadcom. He lowered his estimate for Xilinx's 2001 earnings to $1.14 from $1.15, 2002 estimates to 80 cents from $1.10, and 2003 estimates to $1.10 from $1.55. He lowered his target price on the stock to $60 from $70 and his rating from ``strong buy'' to ``outperform.'' Edelstone lowered his 2001 earnings estimate for Broadcom to 10 cents from 55 cents, and his 2002 estimate to 60 cents from $1.40. He slashed his target price to $60 from $130 and his rating to ``outperform'' from ``strong buy.'' Andreas