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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (75010)	4/16/2001 11:03:35 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

How the Dow hides the bear businessweek.com First call Obviously, some slowing in pre-announcements and revisions in tech would be one of the most positive signals indicating a bottom in earnings might not be far off. On the other hand, a reversion to the negative patterns experienced in consumer cyclicals between mid-August and late February would be a very negative signal. The news last Thursday from the retailers may have been ominous, but one day’s data does not make a trend. As for the results so far for 1Q01, there is still enough of a cross-section of industries that have reported to be very meaningful. But so far actual earnings are only on average beating the estimates at the time of reporting by a below average 1.1%. The year-over-year decline in earnings is 8.7% for the 11% of S&P500 companies that have reported, exactly the same by coincidence as the 8.7% decline expected for all of the S&P500. That is also likely to be close to the final number, but there could be some volatility in that datapoint next week. By the end of next week, many of the industries will have been heard from, with notable exceptions being oils, insurance, healthcare, and retail. Therefore, FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS, since the next two weeks will bring forth the deluge of 1Q01 earnings reports, and with it will likely come a continuing stream of negative earnings guidance. How much and how bad, particularly as to 3Q01 and 4Q01, will be the issue. www1.firstcall.com I thought the rallying of aluminum was in anticipation of the automakers reviving production after bringing down their days of unsold inventories of cars through incentive plans.