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To: pbull who wrote (12678)	4/16/2001 3:48:44 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 13572

hazard guess on DowTransports holding up it used to be that the US economy was dominated by mfg not so no more, now dominated by service sector (and consumerism) so FedEx and UPS make oodles of shipments for... documents to infoworld people, data tapes to consultant clients, parts to service staff, contracts to lawyers, clothes from LLBean, books from Amazon, you get the idea then you have the gargantuan consumer trafficking of products for inventory so with service and consumer so large, it overshadows the mfg side where in the Dow Transport index is transactions over wires (phone, T1, satlink) ??? nowhere heck, AOL should be on that index, and Cisco I am convinced that transportation firms have so far warded off higher fuel costs by using more clever efficient routing systems I remember last summer reading also about how the fuel costs in our economy are now 1/5-th the factor overall, as compared to 1970's economy so with different mix, and lower pct fuel factor, that might account for it I read the Russell article, very interesting, but not very deep and adaptable to change using 1930's and 1960's arguments doesnt fly with me using 1980's and 1990's arguments does we had a severe recession in 1970's from OPEC oil hikes fourfold a similar shock wave to the system in profound effect but this economy must swallow huge overcapacity and huge debt overburden / jw