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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (90084)	4/16/2001 12:38:35 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>> and inflation rates of 10% and higher may soon be inevitable. << Seems to me you just made a better case for gold than for energy. In the gold sector we see positive divergence, in the other negative with respect to the underlying commodity. One is near historic lows and the other is at historic highs. I think we can have multi-year run in energy stocks, but this period will be similar to the 70's. Look what happened to energy stocks during 72-74 even with an energy crisis. Now this one appears to be as Matt S would say "The Perfect Storm" (Electric, Natural Gas and Oil). So who knows maybe we can get these stocks to slowly power ahead in a slowing economy, but I doubt it. I'm expect the broad market (S&P 500, DOW, Wilshire 5000) to continue to decline for the next year, maybe 2. I don't expect energy stocks to run during this period. Once the bottom is in place in the US and world economy I then expect another multi-year run in energy stocks. If we merely see 4-5% inflation gold should hit $300+ pretty quick. After averaging 3% or less for the past couple years I think 5% would come as a shock to many economists. Much of the inflation/deflation/stag-flation scenarios really comes down to the US dollar. I think gold wins in any of the scenarios, but it may take a little longer with the deflation scenario.