Terry that is a great report......super detailed and very involved. I pulled out a few extracts on Natural Gas.
the charts they have of the trends in increased NG consumption in the past 20 years and the projections of
increased usage over the next 20 years means that we had better produce a lot of NG.
Natural gas remains the fastest growing component of
primary world energy consumption. Over the IEO2001
forecast period, gas use is projected to nearly double in
the reference case, reaching 162 trillion cubic feet in 2020.
Gas use surpassed coal use (on a Btu basis) for the first
time in 1999, and by 2020 it is expected to exceed coal use
by 44 percent (Figure 8). The gas share of total energy
consumption is projected to increase from 23 percent in
1999 to 28 percent in 2020, and natural gas is expected to
account for the largest increment in electricity genera-tion
(increasing by 32 quadrillion Btu or 41 percent of the
total increment in energy used for electricity genera-tion).
Combined-cycle gas turbine power plants offer
some of the highest commercially available plant effi-ciencies,
and natural gas is environmentally attractive
because it emits less sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and
particulate matter than does oil or coal.
In the industrialized world, natural gas is expected to
make a greater contribution to incremental energy con-sumption
among the major fuels, increasingly becoming
the choice for new power generation because of its envi-ronmental
and economic advantages. In the developing
countries, increments in gas use are expected to supply
both power generation and other uses, including fuel for
industry. Gas use in the developing world is projected to
grow at a faster rate than any other fuel category in the
IEO2001 reference case, an average of 5.2 percent per
year, compared to 3.7 percent per year for oil and 3.1 per-cent
for coal.
Natural Gas
Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2001 forecast.
The use of natural gas is projected to nearly double between 1999 and 2020,
providing a relatively clean fuel for efficient new gas turbine power plants.
Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing compo-nent
of world energy consumption in the International
Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001) reference case. Gas use is
projected to almost double, to 162 trillion cubic feet in
2020 from 84 trillion cubic feet in 1999 (Figure 38). With
an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent, the share
of natural gas in total primary energy consumption is
projected to grow to 28 percent from 23 percent. The
largest increments in gas use are expected in Central and
South America and in developing Asia, and the develop-ing
countries as a whole are expected to add a larger
increment to gas use by 2020 than are the industrialized
countries. Among the industrialized countries, the larg-est
increases are expected for North America (mostly the
United States) and Western Europe (Figure 39).
In the IEO2001 reference case, the world share of gas use
for electricity generation is projected to rise to 26 percent
in 2020). Natural gas accounts for the largest projected
increment in energy use for power generation, at 32
quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) between 1999
and 2020, as compared with an increment of 19 quadril-lion
Btu projected for coal. As a result, a growing inter-connection
between the gas and power industries is
expected (see box on page 52).
The projections for natural gas consumption in the
industrialized countries show more rapid growth and a
larger share of the total expected increase in energy con-sumption
than are projected for any other energy fuel.
Gas use is projected to grow by 2.4 percent per year in
the industrialized countries (compared with 1.1 percent
for oil) and to account for 49 percent of the projected
increase in their total energy use. Natural gas is pro-jected
to provide 25 percent of all the energy used for
electricity generation in the industrialized countries in
2020, up from 14 percent in 1999.
The IEO2001 projections for the developing countries
show similar trends for natural gas use, starting from a
smaller share of total energy used in 1999 (16 percent for
the developing countries, compared with the world
average of 23 percent). In the reference case, natural gas
consumption is projected to grow more rapidly than the
use of any other fuel in the developing countries from
1999 to 2020, by an average 5.2 percent per year, com-pared
with 4.9 percent per year for nuclear energy, 3.7
percent for oil, 3.1 percent for coal, and 2.8 percent for
renewable energy (primarily hydropower).
Around the world, gas use is increasing for a variety of
reasons, including price, environmental concerns, fuel
diversification and/or energy security issues, market
deregulation (for both gas and electricity), and overall
economic growth.6 In many countries, governments
hold equity in natural gas companies, and this can be
used as a policy instrument. In Asia, examples include
Kogas (Korea), Petronas (Malaysia), Pertamina (Indone-sia),
China National Petroleum Corporation, and Gas
Authority of India Ltd. In the Middle East and Africa,
examples include Oman LNG, Adgas (subsidiary of
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company), National Iranian Oil
Company, Sonatrach (Algeria), Nigerian National
Petroleum Corporation, Egyptian General Petroleum
Company, and Mossgas in South Africa.
Barely 20 percent of the natural gas that the world con-sumed
in 1999 was traded across international borders,
as compared with 50 percent the oil consumed. Trade of
both fuels grew steadily in the late 1990s, but natural gas
is more complex to transport and generally requires
larger investments. In addition, many gas resources are
located far from demand centers.
Future world gas consumption will require bringing
new gas resources to market. Currently, the economics
of transporting natural gas to demand centers depends
on the market price, and the pricing of natural gas is
complicated by the fact that it is much less traded than
oil. In Asia and Europe, for example, markets for lique-fied
natural gas (LNG) are strongly influenced by oil and
oil product markets. As the use and trade of gas continue
to grow, it is expected that pricing mechanisms for natu-ral
gas will continue to evolve, facilitating international
trade.
Reserves
Global natural gas reserves doubled over the past 20
years, outpacing growth in oil reserves over the same
period. Gas reserve estimates have grown particularly
rapidly in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and in devel-oping
countries in the Middle East, South and Central
America, and the Asia Pacific region (Figure 40). The Oil
& Gas Journal estimated proven world gas reserves as of
January 1, 2001, at 5,278 trillion cubic feet, an increase of
132 trillion cubic feet over the 2000 estimate (see box on
page 46).7
The largest increases in estimated reserves in 2000 were
in the Middle East and in Central and South America. In
the Middle East, where reported reserves grew by more
than 100 trillion cubic feet, additions were concentrated
in Saudi Arabia and Israel. In Central and South Amer-ica,
gas reserves reported by Bolivia grew fourfold, and
reserve additions were also reported for Venezuela,
Argentina, and Trinidad and Tobago. Other regions
reported either very small changes in reserves or no
change at all. New reserves in Norway played a large
role in the small increase for Europe, and a small
increase for developing Asia reflected reserve additions
in Papua New Guinea.
World gas reserves are somewhat more widely distrib-uted
among regions than are oil reserves. For example,
the Middle East holds 65 percent of global oil reserves
but only 35 percent of gas reserves (Figure 41). Thus,
some regions with limited oil reserves hold significant
gas stocks. The FSU accounts for around 6 percent of
world oil reserves but roughly 35 percent of proven gas
reserves. Most of the gas (32 percent of world reserves) is
located in Russia, which has the largest reserves in the
world—more than double those in Iran, which has the
second largest stocks. In the Middle East, Qatar, Iraq,
Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates also
have significant gas reserves (Table 16). Reserve-to-production
(R/P) ratios exceed 100 years for the Middle
East and are nearly as high for Africa (about 98 years)
and the FSU (about 82 years). The R/P ratio for Central
and South America is also high (about 66 years), as com-pared
with only 10 years for North America and about
18 years for Europe. For the world as a whole, current
average R/P ratios are 61.9 years for natural gas and 41
years for oil [1].
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000 Trillion Cubic Feet
Industrialized
Developing
EE/FSU
Figure 40. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region,
1975-2001
Sources: 1975-1993: “Worldwide Oil and Gas at a Glance,”
International Petroleum Encyclopedia (Tulsa, OK: PennWell
Publishing, various issues). 1994-2001: Oil & Gas Journal
(various issues). |
