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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry D who wrote (3407)	4/16/2001 4:56:55 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 23153

Terry, re: timing on market bottoms. I certainly agree that the market will try to look ahead and will put in a bottom before the fundamentals bottom. Estimates are coming down, but year end targets for the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq are not. I cannot find one single analyst with a target less than 1400 for year end for the S&P. That's almost a 20%+ gain in just 8 months. And many of the targets are higher still. Same with the Dow and Nasdaq. At this point too many are thinking "V" shaped recovery albiet delayed into 2002 vs "U" or "L". Once we start pricing in the very real possibility of an "L" or at least a long "U" I'll be more satisfied. The fact that the semi's are still holding up here speaks volumes about the optimism still present in tech markets. We need to go down to SOX 300. AMAT to 25. It can definately get worse. And it can last much longer than people expect if it spreads globally - which by CSCO's account it is.