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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Smith who wrote (50525)	4/16/2001 7:49:37 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Watch CSCO if it goes below 15 if you like it, though I prefer other tech names like EMC at 28-29. Shorts will target CSCO in particular but they'll also cover pretty quickly as they know what can happen once we reverse course. I was hoping for a dip this week and looks like we'll get it. Want to collect a few more oversold techs at their April bottoms if possible as I expect a rally going into May. Looking at several types: cash-rich dogs like COMS, cash-rich AAPL below 20, again EMC below 30, LU below 7, IBM around 90, WCOM below 19, INTC 24 etc. There should be a nice fast snap-back later this week or next. Greedy shorts will end up getting burned again and used as rocket fuel if they don't cover quickly. In effect I see this as maybe a last pull-back to load up and re-fuel for a resumption in the rally. Hope I'm right. In the meantime major telcos look strong and safe: FON, VZ, SBC all holding steady and basing well. Wish I could grab an oil stock or two but that refinery fire made them more expensive today. They're defensive issues and I don't think we need much defence if we can grab the bottoms on the techs this week then ride them into May. If techs out-perform by May 15 I may switch into energy for the summer when I'll be traveling. Energy and big-cap telcos will be keepers though the summer could be lucrative for techs as well if news of inventory burn-offs starts coming in. Until then I'd buy the sharp tech dips, trim into the big rallies and hold onto your keepers. I'd still much rather be long here than short as I feel the long side will out-perform going forward. The number of possible tech sell-offs left in front of us is looking more and more numbered and the consensus is that by the end of the year all the techs will be trading much higher. Therefore many investors will just buy and hold 'em though any turbulence. That creates a lot more stability and negates the fear and loathing which hit Dec-March.

To: Joe Smith who wrote (50525)	4/16/2001 11:46:29 PM
From: maverick61	Respond to of 57584

Joe - While the magnitude is great - how could you not expect it. Hasn't anyone out there been listening to Chambers. this is CSCO - the company that never warns, that beats by $.01 consistently. And yet for the last 3 months - CHambers has been telling us at every opportunity that business sucked, etc, etc. On top of that, I have posted here before about the financial games companies play. I won't repeat this in detail - but in brief, when it is time for bad news - as a company CFO - I am gonna be so conservative that I am gonna spread the worst case possible, build up all my reserves, write-off whatever I can aggressively and not only get the bad news behind me, but set up my books with a ton of cushion that I can use to help meet some goals in the future. thus, hearing what Chambers was saying over and over, and knowing how most good managements manage their financial statements, the warning and magnitude of it are not unexpected at all. Shoot, I have had friends been asking me is it time to buy CSCO yet - and I kept telling them - no, wait for the massive warning to come. So, smarter than the average bear? Well, I wouldn't say that - sometimes I am, sometimes I am not. No one wins them all. But as far as anyone being surprised by CSCO - no, I completely expected this - and anyone who didn't was living in a cave. Just my humble opinion.