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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (51522)	4/16/2001 8:36:16 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77397

Timing the bottom on CSCO: I watched, on a daily basis, the Mobile-Home Builder (MHB) industry go through a similar thing to what the network/telco-equip industry is currently experiencing. The MHBs, when credit was easy, built too many factories. They also built way too many retail outlets, and all those outlets have to have inventory on the lots, to show to customers. They padded sales, by offering easy credit to customers. Sounds similar to what LU and CSCO have done, doesn't it? Then, credit standards tightened, no one wanted to buy mortgage-backed securities any more (at least not from the hi-risk MH market). Repossessed mobile homes began to show up in quantity on the market, and severely depressed the market for new homes. Several major companies in the industry were pushed to the brink of insolvency. All the stocks went down and down. The best company in the industry was CMH. They have the most conservative lending standards among the major companies, and they didn't overbuild when times were good. They make the sales managers, on their lots, responsible for after-sales customer relations (including payment problems). The stocks peaked in early 1998. Then, in early 2000 (2 years later), CMH stopped going down, while the rest of the stocks in the industry kept on sliding. That is, at some point (and it took a while), the market started treating CMH differently, because investors realized that CMH was going to be a survivor, and would come out of the downturn with growing market share. Investors also had to see the light at the end of the tunnel, in terms of industry conditions. I bought my CMH shares from June to August 2000. EPS is still going down, but the shares bottomed in early/mid-2000. CMH chart: siliconinvestor.com CMH and competitors: see how, in mid-2000, CMH turned, and the others didn't: siliconinvestor.com I think I'm going to look for a similar thing, to time my entry into CSCO. When LU and NT are still making new lows, but CSCO isn't, is when it'll be time to buy. It may take a while.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (51522)	4/16/2001 9:01:17 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

lol... me too. Here I was guiding your inv #up. .. but barely to the halfway point and I'm the pessimist! 2.5 B$ is what they had on hand end of Q '02. So a charge of this magnitude is incredible. Got me wondering about further skeletons: (a) overcapacity, (b) downstream clogging of distributor network, or (c) forward supply contracts. Particularly since they are fabless, and a lot of inventory is held off the books. Is there more where this came from? Let's all hope not! You are braver than me to call a bottom right now. With 10% growth into 4Q... well, the next big question is "where's the growth coming from" plus "how much" and "when". And the company saying "Wait 'till May 8" on everything... Not the kinds of questions-without-answers to inspire a bottoming in a market with downwards bias. Well, now things get fun... John.