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To: DanZ who wrote (30894)	4/16/2001 10:20:49 PM
From: hui zhou	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Someone told me when more than 90%(must be 90% or more, not 80%)of the people survey found that one stock, they believe, would go down, it may warrant that it goes up instead. Let me see this theory can hold tomorrow.

To: DanZ who wrote (30894)	4/17/2001 12:37:19 AM
From: Kelvin Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Dan a few of your points need clarification: "2,500 of the jobs were temporary and contract workers, which is better than if all 8,500 were full time employees" they had orignially said more temps would be cut so the 2500 is a lower number for temps and more of the permantant staff is going out. "I don't think that the magnitude of the inventory write-off was expected," very true. 10% is consider bad, 30% a disaster. "Despite a short term slowdown in Cisco's business, they are poised for long term growth, albeit it's harder to grow sales 50% from $20 billion than from $8 billion." I don't expect anything near 50% growth. 10-15% is more likely. The key is what does one pay for EPS growth? sure, 30%+ can demand a high multiple, but value is the key. Currently the stock is trading with a PE above 30, not cheap. And the estimates for next year are too high currently. I don't see a double in price in 12 months. CSCO will have to prove itself again to have a PE much higher that it is currently. Remember as earning go down the PE goes up. until the market see the declines in profits stop and has qrt over qrt growth in earnings the stock is dead money. as one tech watcher said today, have a little CSCO for the long term is ok, but much more attractive tech values out there now to chose from. some with PEs in the single digits.