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To: Thomas A Watson who wrote (138844)4/16/2001 11:42:28 PM
From: dale_laroy  Respond to of 769667
 
"Ok you got me. It's the top 5000."

I suspect that if the top 5000 systems are exceeded today, the entire available computational power is probably exceeded. If not, it will be in six months.

Actually, if there is anything we have learned in the past 20 years, it is that throwing computational power at many simulations, such as weather, has only a marginal impact on prediction ability. If the model can accurately predict 50 hours in advance, increasing the computational power by an order of magnitude might stretch this out to 51 hours.