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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (14557)	4/17/2001 5:26:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Mike, I am not sure what you are referring to in "rate cut", if you speak of an early rate cut, no, that is not in the scenario, the rate cut on May 15th is factored in and only at .25%. I know the street would love a cut of .5% tomorrow, but with the Dow back above 10,000 you really think an early cut is what AG will consider? Look at it from his perspective, He managed to deflate the bubble in the naz without (yet) hurting the main or old economy too much. AG , IMHO, is more interested in the impact these cuts have on consumer confidence and in leaving himself enough room to maneuvre in the event of a financial meltdown. If he uses all the ammunition now, he will not have the leeway of using interest rates to step into the breach in the event that is becoming necessary. Furthermore, over easing may set us up (if it has not already) to paying the piper next year with rate increases. The May rate cut, is factored in as part of that inverted W structure I suggested may occur after this week "expected" peak (now possibly in doubt of course). Zeev