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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (23028)	4/17/2001 8:39:36 AM
From: rhkohnen	Respond to of 29986

Interesting article, thanks Jon. The one thing he misses in his scenario is the move to multi-media over the Internet and for Business use (Video Conferencing). Where today you may be sending over 1Kbits with a page, with multi-media you could be sending 1Mbits per page. This is a 1000 fold increase in bandwidth usage resulting from a change in presentation of material. If multi-media becomes the in-thing, then banks will free up money to telecoms to refinance, which goes against one of Ravi's arguments. Same is true for 3G. One of 3G's drivers is the forthcoming multi-media boom. We are at a pivot point in the telecom industry wrt contraction versus expansion. A lot will depend upon how the government interplays with the industry. If the government continues to be friendly then we should continue the expansion in this marketplace. Right I am seeing schools and municipalities putting in the infrastructure to support multi-media, which leads me to believe that the government will continue to be friendly. This new construction is about two years away. In summary, I think Ravi is partially correct in his assessment. His scenario only works if revenues stay at current levels. BTW none of this helps G*. JMHO Best regards Bob