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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (123723)	4/17/2001 12:48:01 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Sarmad: "It seems car companies did a far better job this time." The car companies have more experience with inventory control than probably any other industry -- I am not saying they are always better at it, but at least they know they are in a cyclical business and their efforts in inventory control have been huge and conducted over decades. This is a complex area, and not well understood in industry -- including tech. The fact is that companies like itwo have a growing number of customers and a fairly certain future because the costs of holding inventory are devastating and the tech sector has had a brush with disaster in part because they could not or would not turn off the taps fast enough. Don't forget how quickly the orders stopped coming in -- and as for forecasting, you need judgement to forecast shifts in demand. Almost all models assume that things are "normal". Last fall, for those with experience in business cycles, it was increasingly obvious that things were not "normal". The price of energy in all energy sectors was screaming "recession or near recession this winter" -- and a few of us did scream that (of course we were 'clueless' because this was 'old economy' extremism -- LOL). The connection between energy and slowdowns -- not to mention the turbocharged growth of the late 1990's which was the result of $10 oil and cheap credit but which we mistakenly assumed could all be explained as the "new economy". There is a lot I could tell you about this scm sector, but I prefer not to say too much on a public thread.