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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (36011)	4/17/2001 10:31:09 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 275872

RE:"AMD market share 21.2% in Q1 according to Mercury Research" If that's true that's a blockbuster. Just think if AMD had a dang notebook chip and server chipset.

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (36011)	4/17/2001 12:59:51 PM
From: milo_morai	Respond to of 275872

Very Interesting , Thankyou for the post! Cannot wait till INTC and AMD have reported this week. M.

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (36011)	4/17/2001 2:19:23 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

AMD CPU shipments may have only dropped 1.6% if Mercury Research data on market share is correct and Kumar's 20% shipment drop for Intel is accurate. Kumar's numbers are not consistent with the Mercury Research data, unless his AMD numbers are too low. Mercury Research: According to Mercury Research's preliminary data for the first quarter of 2001, Intel lost market share to AMD over the past year. Intel had 77.1 percent of the PC processor market in the first quarter, down from 82.3 percent a year ago, while AMD gained share, ending the quarter with a 21.2 percent stake, vs. 16.8 percent a year ago. Kumar: ``We believe Intel's units are down 20 percent and AMD's are down 12 percent,'' said Ashok Kumar, an analyst at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, referring to the number of chips sold. ``Given the fairly malignant pricing environment, AMD's profitability will also be impacted.'' First, I believe Kumar's numbers (20% drop for Intel and 12% drop for AMD) are refering to Q4 when AMD had 18% market share. (If he was talking year over year, the result is even more astoundingly positive for AMD.) But for AMD to go from 18% market share to 21.2% market share, the following would have to be true: Assumption: AMD's market share in Q4 was 18%, Intel's 80.5%, others had 1.5% Mercury Research numbers of 77.1%, 21.2%, 1.7% are correct for Q1 Intel units dropped 20% in Q1 (from Kumar) Then, we can solve for x, the unknown % change in AMD shipments by solving: 0.18(1 + x/100) ------------------------------- = 0.212/0.771 0.8050.8 x = -1.6% A 1.6% drop is way better than the "normal" Q1 and way better than Kumar's 12%! If we change the assumption to one that AMD already had 19% market share in Q4 (about the highest anyone could argue), then AMD's unit shipments still only dropped 8% from Q4 to Q1. Petz