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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hobo who wrote (10442)	4/17/2001 11:29:51 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Good Morning Toscano, I was not suprised to get kicked off the clown thread. I was just too bullish. I still am and my primary reason still is the heavy short interest in the Nasdaq stocks. If you start getting big moves up in stocks like JNPR, it will have a ripple effect on the rest of the nasdaq as short covering extends to other stocks. Not as confident as I was last week but still expecting the Nasdaq rally to continue. Reason is simple. 1. Cisco 2. Intel 3. Ibm 4. Microsoft. The order of the news goes from absolutely "Lousy" (Cisco) to "BAD" (Intel) to ...."NOT BAD FOR THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT" (IBM and Microsoft). It gets better as the week goes on. Intel news will be bad but nothing like Cisco. Intel still has a lot of cash on the balance sheet and should in all likelyhood continue to make money even if at a lesser pace. IBM is still firing on all cylinders due to the nature of their business. MSFT benefits from Intel price cuts to stimulate demand. More Windows being sold this way. In addition, they are the biggest technology beneficiary of the dot.com blowup. That means MSFT continues to dominate the PC sector and will continue right into the internet space. Just wait for their wireless products. The Compaq I-PAQ Pocket PC cannot be produced fast enough to meet demand. It has wireless internet access and has Word/Excel and therefore becomes a business tool and not a Palm Pilot which is mostly a luxury gadget. The DOJ worries are disappearing. Mountains and Mountains of cash--can pick and choose companies to buy that they need in order to dominate new areas. The actually have beefed up their committee for such deals. Without a doubt, Microsoft is the most powerful technology company in the world and now its position is at less risk than it was a year ago--the emerging companies are running out of cash to do any serious R and D work. BTW--If the market does not get worse, things are looking pretty good for later in the week....but the day is not over yet.

To: hobo who wrote (10442)	4/17/2001 11:44:55 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

toscano..a further note. I would expect that the market rallies into the close tomorrow ahead of the earnings. If one is looking for a short term trade, maybe a buy tomorrow AM of QQQs (or today if the market gets weaker) after the Intel news. However, market already expects bad news from Intel and maybe the buy is best if Nasdaq drops into the close late day today and sell just ahead of tomorrow afternoon's IBM earnings. This trade would make the most sense if the Nasdaq pulls back today at some point in the day. Just an idea. I am still focussed on tech and am playing more of a strategic positioning rather than a short term trade.