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To: AllansAlias who wrote (95216)4/17/2001 9:45:11 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
I forgot to include the bullish NDX scenario as one of the slow mice. I think you posted something about this, but the importance of the nature of this Naz rally can not be stressed enough. The fact that this thing is unfolding with more than two significant uplegs indicates that there will be a second upleg to come - a kind of an echo. For e-wavers, it is turning into an obvious five waves up. While it does little good to recognize that now if you've been expecting corrective down, it means that the next move down will be a BUYING OPPORTUNITY. As hard as that is to believe, it is the message being broadcast by the action.

Whether you believe in Elliot wave or not, realize that moves that occur with more than two legs to the major trend have an extremely high probability of being followed by a similar move after a corrective phase.

This is all assuming that the gap up still happens tomorrow, and that Naz breaks out of this week-long trading range to the upside. A logical target for this fifth wave would be the overhead resistance at 1850 provided by the failed bottom there. Also, this represents the top of the up-channel we've been in for the past several days.

Note further that THE trendline from the Sept. highs has been falling lo these many moons, and just now puts major resistance at a little over NDX 2100, coincidentally the major January 2001 low. The next upleg of this rally has the highest probability of terminating there.

So, IF we get the breakout upside tomorrow, it will be a wave five of A. Then we can finally get some corrective down, maybe to round out the head & shoulders bottom that is forming up here. I will be buying this bottom, and may actually be crazy enough to be net long for a few days. There are few setups as plain as five waves up and a head and shoulders bottom in a deeply oversold market demanding one more corrective leg up. Buying the next string of down days will be pouncing on the slow mouse.

BC