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To: GST who wrote (123734)4/18/2001 10:50:04 AM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
i think we're entering the deflationary 'winter' season of the Longwave...however, some insist that we're already past that and have begun the mildly inflationary 'spring'.

i can't agree with that, because this would mean the '98 crisis was the whole winter - hardly credible imo. the last winter season from '29 to '49 was clearly discernible as such, and there were no debates as to what season we were in. likewise, the last spring ('49 - '66) , summer ('66 - '81) and autumn (the disinflation stage beginning in the early '80's) were all clearly discernible and recognizable. i expect the winter to likewise become very obvious at some stage...the '98 deflation scare was merely a blip.