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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75160)	4/17/2001 3:02:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 99985

Yes, and also a "must own" in many mfs and managed portfolios. Hey, look how cheap I bought CSCO. Glad I was out at 40 now I got it real cheap at 25. But I guess this the same with all the big tech names. ATG

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75160)	4/18/2001 4:44:56 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I don't get it. INTC reported $6.68B sales and expects 6.2-6.8 in Q2, compared to $8.0B and $8.3B in 2000. Gross margin at 52% and expected 51% in Q2, compared to 62.6% and 60.4% respectively. AMD is conquering more turf- 21% market share in Q1. P-4 price cuts will inhibit improvement in margins in Q3. o.k. lets say business will improve in Q3 and Q4 and sales will grow 10% sequencial to $7.5B and $8.2B. At 51% gross, and with current SG&A that makes the operating income for Q3 $1.1B at most and $1.45B in Q4. Giving a VERY generous multiple of 20 on Q4 operating income gives a valuation of no more then $120B for the company. This IMO is very rich pricing, I just can't go higher then that. That's $17.7 a share. Now how in hell does INTC rise from 26 to 29 on the relief? Guess I'm just stupid, not seeing what everybody see. ATG