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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (16652)	4/17/2001 7:12:43 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 37746

Now that estimate is way down to about 23 cents, and the sharply reduced share price of 16 is 70 times earnings. Also consider that the 23-cent estimate for 2002 is the same amount Cisco earned in 1997. How much is growth of that sort worth? You know the thing that bothers me about that first article is that this kind of logic suggests there never is a time to snap up shares at a bargain. It is my experience that precisely this kind of write-off plants the seed for the next big move. Not necessarily tomorrow but someday (relatively soon) down the road...To suggest that CSCO is overvalued using such logic("how much is growth of that sort worth") may be something of a stretch. After all, the stock is only trading at a 40% premium of what it was in 1997...and though the bottom line growth has regressed, top line growth is a multiple of 1997...This suggests that, once inventory is under control and business conditions pick up the bottom line could expand quickly. If his argument is that conditions cannot improve, then, fine...make that case. But he hasn't made it. In fact it is a simplistic argument at best. Not at all compelling.

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (16652)	4/17/2001 7:33:54 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

INTC income down 64% from last year. HWP net income down 62% AAPL last recorded a net LOSS, and revenue was down 57% FON net income fell 25% - Yes but stock prices also down the same or more, much mjore in some cases. And now revenues are likely to pick up gradually from here not go down again (for most not all). See my drift? When the recovery starts it will be priced-in fast. And it will start long before it peaks. There were good reasons for these stocks to come but now three are more reasons for them to go part-way back up. A 25% pop from here still leaves techs down 50-98% as opposed to 60-99%. I like the big techs but I also ilke the beaten-down dogs. Because those which are down 99% could double and still be down 97% (or something like that). With INTC back above $30 I think you'll see every one of them follow, and if traders start buying the dot-bombs then those could go up 50% or more in a week (like LOR did last week).