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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (75227)	4/17/2001 9:54:04 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

It seems the market is like a spring. It got stretched to 5000 and then compressed to 1600 or so. My feeling is that a spring compressed won't go up slowly--it will just bounce quickly since the moves up and down have been extreme, IMHO. I am not really talking about what is fair value for these companies that much--just on a market move. Not predicting all time highs--far from it. I see the market bounce quickly to mid 2000s and then go in the direction that the fundamentals take it. Possibly even settle there for a while or move higher or lower. I am just playing a explosive bounce in the techs. This spring analogy is precisely my reason for buying up Nasdaq techs. People now want to know about shorting and buying hedged funds. The retail investors are now heavily shorting. The biggest reason for my bullishness is that the mutual funds over did it in setting up their cash reserves for redemptions--they always do this. It is just their conservatism that makes them sell more than necessary. Also noticed significant underweighting in big funds--even Janus cut back on tech! Too many factors at work...and any short should have realized that such a bad profit warning from Cisco and the Nasdaq goes up is telling people something. Now we just have OK news from Intel and great news from RFMD---and there is no way this market does not cross 2000 tomorrow or the next day. IBM is going to be good and MSFT will be better than Intel...just too many catalysts as the week goes on. Best of Luck with your trading.