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To: Gut Trader who wrote (3)4/18/2001 7:06:09 AM
From: AllansAlias  Respond to of 209892
 
Baja Fish Taco from bearforum on scenarios here:
bearforum.com

Take a look at the first chart, the NASDAQ composite. The scenario I was talking about yesterday is what he refers to as "Gap and Go". Forget the little numbers on his chart. Just look at the letters: the A low, the B, high, and the C low -- they are the points of the wave 4 I was describing. Yesterday morning...

Oh... I'll do a chart here in a few minutes because prose just doesn't cut it...



To: Gut Trader who wrote (3)4/18/2001 8:15:27 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
The only question that matters out of these pretty pictures, is "How do I make money from them?"

First of all, I am a firm believer in not trading against the intermediate trend. For me, intermediate is the next day or two. Second, I am most interested in "biting out the middle". This means I am only interested in juicy setups and not marginal trades that I think do not have room to run. (Of course, I am also a firm believer in being nimble and turning on a dime if the market pulls something weird out of its hat. -g)

So, today, I think the trend is up. The gap-up, if we get it, will make it harder to get on board the trend. It will be difficult to judge when the middle of the move is ending. I think we are in a 3 here, but it'll be hard to tell if the next pullback is just a pullback in the 3, or the start of the larger 4 retracement. If we get an early pullback, I'd look to buy it. If the run takes a nice shape for the 3, then I will look for a quick short in the 4. After that, I'll try to judge when the 4 is ending and get ready to jump on the 5. Doubt we'll have time to start a 5 (of this 3) today.