Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (95584)	4/18/2001 1:20:45 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

bubble bucks capitalinsight.co.uk

To: Les H who wrote (95584)	4/18/2001 1:23:15 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 436258

great stuff..Thanks Stockmarket Cycles update for Tuesday, April 17th. On our telephone update of April 10th, We said that the Dow Jones Industrial Average had reached its 2/3 Speed Resistance Line from the January 2000 high close to the March 2001 low close. We went on to say that the Dow should find important resistance within 2-3%, at the most, of that day's close. The close that day was 10,102.74 and that would yield a maximum price of around 10,406 on a closing basis. We must admit that the fact that the market did not reach an apparent high in the time window we recognized last week for three potential turning point patterns causes us to be very wary of the short term bearish case. We must constantly remind ourselves and our subscribers of the benchmark 10 day Trading Index reading above 1.50 registered just one month ago. Historically, over the past 40 years, if there is to be a new low registered after such a reading, it occurs within four weeks of the oversold reading. The fact that the market has failed to move to a new low within the four week period makes a strong historic argument that a potentially important bottom has been seen. And yet ---- we continue to view the important breaks in price that occurred on both the New York Composite Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average as very important technical signs. As we pointed out over the past few weeks, those important price breaks argue strongly that a secular bear market has just been confirmed. If that is the case, it is foolhardy to be looking for an important bottom. Here is an amazing flash bulletin from Jim Stack's latest newsletter. Jim writes that, based on the latest 10 Qs and 10 Ks coming in their door, the NASD research department calculates that cumulative earnings for all 4800 domestic stocks traded on the Nasdaq exchange have fallen to $8,934,115-down 67% from year-end levels. In short, earnings for many of these companies are falling faster than their stock prices, and the current P/E ratio on the Nasdaq Composite is 288-1. We took a long hard look at the projection charts this afternoon. What we can say with confidence is, if prices hold up at current levels or higher for three more days, significantly higher projections will be given. Until or unless that happens, the prices we have seen so far can all be explained by shorter-term projections. As this update is being delivered, the S&P stock index futures are up well over 1%, implying at least significant intra-day strength tomorrow. According to our projections, a price as high as 1,223.50 on the June S&P contract could be justified by shorter-term projections. Should prices move above that level intra-day, there would be a strong implication that significantly higher price projections were being given. On a technical basis, the Trading Index readings are overbought enough to justify at least a short-term market top. TRIN 5 close below 4.00 for the second consecutive day, our own New 10 TRIN moved back down to 0.81, and the Open 10 TRIN closed at 0.94, the lowest reading since late January and, before that, the lowest reading since November 8th, just two days after the important high in the S&P cash. We must remain aware that if indeed this is the beginning of a new bull market, as unbelievable as that may seem, the Trading Index readings will remain overbought for long periods of time and not be overly significant. We seriously doubt the market is in a configuration like that, but at this point in our career, almost nothing surprises us anymore. Mutual fund switchers- Rydex switchers are 100% in the Ursa Fund, Fidelity Select switchers are 100% in Select American Gold. All mutual fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and call each market evening. Stock-index futures traders, it appeared as if we were fortunate because the market missed our stop by only two ticks at the high of the day. As it turns out, if Globex prices carry over into tomorrow's action, we would have been far better off to have been stopped out at today's high. Tomorrow, place your stops 4.20 above the opening price. If you are stopped out, you may reshort only if there is an hourly or half hourly reading below 1,184.00 on the S&P cash. If that should occur, cover that short sale on any hourly or half hourly cash reading above 1,192.75. There are no new projections for the XAU or for bonds. That's it for now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow stockmarketcycles.com