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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (5912)	4/18/2001 5:50:31 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

And it looks like you're another worth reading .. thanks for being here. FWIW I have an upper tine fork at 1241.33 (SPX cash) for today falling at a rate of 2.54 points per day. Another NDX fork mid tine at ~1961 falling at a rate of 2.324 points per day.

To: isopatch who wrote (5912)	4/18/2001 9:11:36 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Good thoughts, isopatch. I for one believe you're a pro. You certainly have the mentality. Bill Meehan is a pro that I respect greatly. He was quite bearish in 99-00, and has turned bullish a few weeks back. Message 15675553 I said last week that I would sprout horns if the NYX could close over 600.. and it's done that two days in a row. I feel the horns starting to pop out. The A/D and NH-NL both continue to improve, and the bad news is being bought, as you said. There are 2 possible scenarios in my mind: 1) The cyclical bear market has ended, and we are in phase 1 of a new cyclical bull that should take us see-sawing up for the next 8-12 months, OR 2) This is simply a bullish correction between the 2nd and 3rd phases of the cyclical bear, and we start heading down again within the next month. Odds favor the first scenario at the moment, IMO, but odds can change quickly. <g> Don't get me wrong- I am certain that the Secular bear market is still in the very early stages. I seriously doubt that we have seen the FINAL lows in constant dollars- probably only the lows for the year. The cyclical bull will not negate the secular bear. Based on a similar set-up in 1974- we could see a 40% rally in the SPX over the next year. I think it is worth playing. In hindsight- the full moon on 4/8 was a cycle low- so I am expecting a cycle high near the new moon on 4/23. That would give this rally several more days to go.. Regards, TW BTW- Do you think the new highs in the XOI should be bought, or faded here? I am holding them long at the moment.

To: isopatch who wrote (5912)	4/18/2001 9:32:26 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

You and Michael made a great call, Iso. Kudos to you both. Was looking at daily indicators on the COMPX this morning, and with the exception of slow stochastics, this rally looks like it's only about half done. Should be headed for 2250. The chart set-up seems to point to that level too; consolidation at the midpoint and should break out today. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!c20!d20,2][vc60][iud20!lf!ll14!lb14!la12,26,9!lh14,3!lc20!le12,26,9!lg] Was noticing in IBD this morning (page A20) that the put/call ratio might have put in a broadening top since late March and then retraced to the midpoint of that pattern. It's probably kind of obvious, but the P/C ratio should start dropping at this point. One thing holding up this rally has been the high level of bearishness; that looks like it should start to turn. Just some early observations. Will be watching that upper trendline on the Dow; looks like the rising wedge could get negated here, but we'll see what the cash traders do first. Keep up the great posts. Paul