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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75340)	4/18/2001 11:59:26 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim, we are setting ourselves up for a major recession starting the summer or Fall of 2002 with this cut. I do not see this as a required cut at all, it is going to rekindle our trade deficit that was just getting a little" under control, and by next June or so, the feds will have to start and raise rate, at that time we will still have over capacity, but we will also have an exhausted consumer. The only salvation is if the tax cut expected goes into something like $500/$1000 tax credit or rebate equally to each tax payer. If they tamper with the tax rate, we are cooked. In the meanwhile, however, after we go back down a little here, expect a powerful bull at least into next April (I still think we are going down into August first, however). Zeev

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75340)	4/18/2001 12:07:52 PM
From: gfs_1999	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim, March ? Before earnings? Before Tech warning? Alan waited earnings from some companies first. Alan look at Intel,Cisco,UAL,C,Mer....... and told to himself time to ease more. Regards GFS

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75340)	4/18/2001 1:42:15 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99985

Surprise Fed Rate Cut: While I was as surprised as anyone that the Fed would cut on such a strong Market up day and w/o any precipitating economic news, it's not a surprise in the broader sense. Despite the reputation of setting short-term rates, the Fed actually follows them more often than not. Historically, the Fed Funds rate tends to be 0 to 0.5% above the 90-Day T-Bill rate. That has been just above 4% recently, almost a full 1.5% below the Fed Funds Rate. The rate cut just narrows that gap, and another 0.5% in May would put the Fed Funds rate within its traditional range vis a vis other short-term rates. It is, however, true that the same imbalance has existed for months.