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To: Andrew G. who wrote (95738)	4/18/2001 12:39:40 PM
From: sammaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

until now imported deflation via strong dollar and weaker foreign economies has kept inflation in check so bubble was sustainable... this no longer holds so inflation will decrease demand and vicious downward cycle begins... i think the inflection point is rising inflation and decresed growth which is occuring now

To: Andrew G. who wrote (95738)	4/18/2001 1:24:21 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

The credit bubble stops when faith in the underlying creditor is shaken. As long as the currency of the creditor is perceived as a safe haven from global financial crisis, then credit expansion can occur ad nauseum without jeopardy, for the fed and her banks know that they are not limited by trade imbalances, lack of savings, or even a stable equity environment. Without this faith, the creditors attempts to expand credit are met with currency devaluation, which weakens faith further.

To: Andrew G. who wrote (95738)	4/18/2001 1:52:10 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

wild enthusiasm for telco bonds?? have you looked at spreads lately? commercial paper markets are in disarray... the proof is in the pudding: look at a chart of total credit market debt over the past 30 years, and you can see the exponential expansion. and i keep telling you it can't be sustained...in the past five years alone, 9 trillion dollars were added to total credit market debt, and most of this went towards malinvestments, consumption and speculation. there are simply no cash flow generating real world assets to balance it out. you are proposing a perpetual motion machine, a.k.a. free lunch...there is no such thing. somebody will have to pay...either the borrowers or the lenders.