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To: Shack who wrote (91)4/18/2001 12:56:31 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I tell you, something smells bad here. Bonds have been whacko and now the surprise cut. This cut makes no sense at all. This will end very badly. In the meantime, we have to trade these wiggles.

In moving back and reassessing things I keep seeing a number of new more bullish scenarios. On this rally, not today, but before, we had many wave socks/indices whose 4's were coming up to the levels of what looked like the bottom of the corresponding 1. (Recall: the top of a 4 should not pass the bottom of a 1. This is a valuable hint.) Well, now some of them have passed that level and one has to very seriously consider that what one thought was a 1 is in fact not. This changes everything.

In the large NASDAQ picture, can this rally be correcting anything within the recent decline from Jan 31? Probably not. That leg is probably done. So, is this a correction within the decline from Sep 1? This looks the most likely here. (The last alternative is that the decline from Sep 1 is finished and we are entering the big rally.)

These are the sorts of questions that need to be asked.

In the short-term, about all I can do is look for the recent rise to roll. It's the shape/extent of this coming correction that should provide the next fat clue.