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To: Softechie who wrote (1119)	4/18/2001 2:11:07 PM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 2155

To:LG who started this subject From: jmootx Wednesday, Apr 18, 2001 1:39 PM Respond to of 75367 Just evidence Alan is targeting the stock market Well the cards are on the table. Alan Greenspan has now cut 200 basis points since Jan. 1st. of this current year. The role of the Federal reserve is primarily to watch inflation. In 1999-2000 there was no inflation but somehow he raised rates 175 basis points. So this latest move proves he was wrong then, quickly lowering rates in near panic action. He has a funny way with deadlines. Stock portfolios have to take year end losses to offset gains by December 31 of any given year. So Mr. Greenspan decided to move on the fly between Fed meetings on the first Wednesday this past January. The second important deadline is April 15 of any given year, when taxes on capital gains are due. Once again, he waited for the first Wednesday after that deadline to lower rates again between meetings. His actions are now clear--to extract as much money out of the stock market as possible. This is not a positive at all. Clearly his Wall Street background has consumed him. The worry is that he will likely play this game until he is gone. So what is his upside target now- NASDAQ 2500, NASDAQ 3000? Then will he raise rates simply at will? I am glad he is lowering rates, very upset that he has redefined the Feds role in targeting stocks first, the economy last. He is clearly a reactionary decision maker, no teacher or visionary. This rally may be the cure to keep the lows at NASDAQ 1500 until this bear market passes, but smart money knows he is playing a game with stock prices. So stop short of believing tech stocks will see NASDAQ 5000 again in the next year. This is good news for retail, banks, and homebuilders. But nice to see hedge funds unwind some huge short positions in technology. Nobody can state now that technology is recession proof or immune to interest rates increases. I would use this rally to lighten up on any technology stock whose PE exceeds more than 1.5x the earnings growth rate of the last three years. The problem is the Fed is playing an unwise game. Hopefully there will be no more Wall Street appointments like Alan Greenspan or Rob Rubin placed in such key positions going forward. I predict this move is a cushion for weakening the US dollar, which will help exports. Remember Paul O'Neil, our current treasury secretary is from Alcoa, the aluminum company. Since Greenspan is a follower, not a leader, count on him to do whatever Mr. O'Neil wants. A weak dollar will raise component prices on technology, since most are made in Asia. It will also raise energy prices, but that is a boon for energy stocks. Multinational companies should also see good profits as exports rise.