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To: Andrew G. who wrote (95812)	4/18/2001 2:46:02 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<<Unemployment is still low. Now they get lowered rates on the MTG to refinance and borrow more.>> Unemployment is rising. Further cuts in Fed Funds are unlikely to result in further mortgage rate declines, as long rates are moving back up briskly (in anticipation of higher inflation and/or the end of the easing cycle): stockcharts.com stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg]

To: Andrew G. who wrote (95812)	4/18/2001 2:54:55 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

so? that's one deal...i'm talking about the shape the market's in over the past 6 months. credit spreads on telco bonds have blown out to never before seen levels...that's a market in distress. i can answer your question...i date the beginning of the credit bubble back to the S&L bail-out...that was when the Greenspan Fed made it clear that it would aid and abet a credit bubble. and the longer it goes, the bigger the hangover will be... regarding unemployment, i expect it to rise sharply in coming months and years...the downturn has only BEGUN and it is already the fastest downturn since 1930. your examples of housing inflation only serve to emphasize what a dangerous and unstable bubble it is...in spite of the real estate inflation, households have steadily decreased their homeowners equity during the boom (it is now at an all time low)...instead of saving for a rainy day, they squandered resources. inevitably, the real estate inflation will also end...leaving a huge mountain of debt, with no assets to back it up.