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To: Lucretius who wrote (95930)	4/18/2001 4:21:02 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

if that matters, we keep going up and you best be ready

To: Lucretius who wrote (95930)	4/18/2001 4:22:25 PM
From: Roads End	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

A couple Q&As from the Richard Russel in this week's Barrons Quite a crystal ball. interactive.wsj.com Q: What does that tell you? A: This could be an intermediate-term plus in a primary bear market. The DJIA recently has been locked in a narrow trading range. If the Transports hold up, the Industrials [recently at 10,056] could rally first to their 50-day moving average at 10,315, then to their 200-day moving average of 10,618 or even beyond. However, this wouldn't mark the start of a new bull market. Remember, bear declines can take well-deserved breathers at any time. These rallies tend to be sharp, sudden and very dangerous. They tend to end as abruptly as they began. The flip side of this scenario is that Transports could turn around and decline, and Industrials could drop to new lows. I'm not certain what will happen. The market will make its own judgment. Meanwhile, a major milestone has been reached. Not since 1982 had the DJIA closed below its low of the prior year. That was a heck of a 19-year run, but it recently was broken when the Dow fell to 9389.48 on March 20, before rallying. The drop below 9796 was a major crack in the structure of the market, but it's not yet a fatal one. Q: What else bothers you? A: The dollar is the wild card here. I'm worried about it. The dollar has remained surprisingly strong in the face of ongoing U.S. trade deficits. When the dollar finally turns down, foreigners could cut back on, or even retreat from, dollar-based financial assets. This would put downward pressure on U.S. bonds and stocks. I'm watching the dollar index that trades on the Cotton Exchange. The June contract recently was 114.90. If it breaks below 114.50, and more importantly 113.50, I'd be reasonably certain the dollar has topped out. Meanwhile, the euro, a major component of the dollar index, is trying to form a head-and-shoulders bottom. This can be seen clearly on weekly charts and is the first hint of a possible major turn to the upside for the euro. If we start to see a real slide in the dollar, all bets are off. A sliding dollar would put huge foreign holdings of U.S. securities in danger. If foreigners cash in their dollar chips, the dollar could step on the down escalator and all hell could break loose. Gold might even go up.

To: Lucretius who wrote (95930)	4/18/2001 4:39:38 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

>>``Looking forward, we are no better than others in predicting how the current economic uncertainty will unfold,'' Chairman and Chief Executive Louis Gerstner said in a statement. ``IBM is certainly to not immune to broad cutbacks in customer spending. However, based on recent results, we expect we will outperform most of our competitors in whatever market emerges this year.'' <<