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Non-Tech : Auric Goldfinger's Short List -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (7682)	4/20/2001 4:05:48 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19428

More IBM: "IBM MIPS Growth Data Points: Company does not generally disclose hard MIPS #'s, but rather yr/yr % growth numbers (announced 40% on call) 40% was well below expectations; we were thinking 70%-plus MIPS bulls insist Q1 MIPS were almost all net-new (i.e. new apps), very little replacement (vs usual 80% replacement) MIPS bulls insist Q1 had MIPS hidden in services contracts that will get recognised rateably over course of services contracts MIPS bulls believe IBM kept pricing very high with Z-rollout; expect Q2 normalised pricing to ignite purchases Note Co. confirmed "Services MIPS" only 10% of total MIPS business, so NOT significant Note Co. source confirmed actual MIPS shipped this Qtr. was 280,000; confirmed about 2/3 was new Z-sales this 280K is significantly lower than we thought (410K); requires historical restatement Q1'00 MIPS shipped should have been 200K, not 290K Average Z-MIPS/box configuration is 1,000 (max of 2,500); 280 * 2/3 * 90% = 166 Z-Series units shipped in Q1'01 Co. had confirmed on Q4 call that Q4 Z-sales (all done in Dec.) were in range of 200 to 300 units Other: "Services" bulls believe IT cost cutting, while hurting consulting assignments, benefits integration assignments could be a integration outsourcing downturn lag as assignments move to completion & no new apps get purchased note "new Q1 services contracts signed" fell to $10B, vs historical $12B to $14B (note huge backlog however) Here is what I gathered from McPeake, BMC & CA Analyst: BMC typically sees 1/3 of total MIPS growth convert (close to Alexy's normalised 80% replacement / 20% net new ratio) modelling only 5% to 9% mainframe license growth for group ; 30% to 40% net-new MIPS growth still enough to provide earnings outperformance BMC (revs almost 100% MIPS growth driven) reports license growth Tues"