Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mitch-c who wrote (45564)	4/18/2001 8:22:13 PM
From: Shoibal Datta	Respond to of 70976

Mitch, I agree with your (and Jacob's and AD's) reasons for being skeptical about this rally. This rally has been built on optimism, and that inherently makes it fishy. The way I see it, unlike before, earnings season doesn't really end anymore. Reg FD has ensured that we get to check the pulse of our favourite companies every 30 days. If that pulse is still weak in the next 30-60 days (i.e. no apparent recovery in hard data), then it's back to the old game (short covered calls). I don't know if this rally will hold, but I did smell it coming along (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=15614815) and bought back all my covered calls, which was paying the bills since January. Since the price to pay by not being in the market if this is the real deal is pretty steep, I initiated long positions in some stocks (CSCO, ALTR, NOK)in the past week. If we run out of steam, then I will have to decide whether to book profits/write cc's against them. Ever the unsure skeptic, I shall wait and watch.... -SD

To: mitch-c who wrote (45564)	4/18/2001 10:34:28 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

" I'll revisit this in early May ... about the time the "euphoria" cycle should return from manic to depressive." Merrils mcCabe says initial peak of mid-high 2000's by the end of may. Ray James, Bloch says three months and maybe 3000. My take is that Dont Fight the Tape was defeating Dont fight the Fed until last week. Now they are both in sync. Its a powerful twosome to go against as i found out on the trip down from 5K. I urge the bears to be careful here. It took a year for naz to go from 5150 to 1650 when these two forces were aligned. A quarter of the way back from the abyss is about 2500. That is my first target and i think we will get there quickly. I know its arbitrary but mentally i have divided the trip back to 5100(not a certainty for sure) into sections---2500-3400-4300-5150. My bullish goal is to see 3400 sometime this year although I expect year end close to be lower. 4300 sometime late in 2002. Beyond that I dont project.

To: mitch-c who wrote (45564)	4/19/2001 3:08:44 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

ST trading: the other thing is that a lot of sideline money is looking at every semi-equip break above resistance lines and moving averages, and a lot of investors use those signals as an "all safe" signal. In a bear market, momentum trading (buying stocks because they have gone up recently) does not work. A lot of people haven't figured that out yet. OTOH, maybe it's me who hasn't figured out that the bottom is in (or that the bear market is suddenly over).