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To: JRI who wrote (96118)	4/18/2001 10:21:04 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

>>But that has not happened in a huge way yet...even though stocks starting getting pummeled long ago. Why isn't the behavior the same on the downside as the upside? << Where did you get that assessment? Everything I read is pointing to a dramatic belt-tightening by consumers ... >> but Europe still has structural problems (less competitive labor/wage laws, federal government debt, liabilities) which put the currency at a somewhat natural disadvantage. << That's over-rated -- where have you been? all this talk of drug plans for the elderly, etc. There is a huge push here to accelerate the creation of a welfare state -- we just do it differently. >>just rationalize that the stocks will come back at some point. Thus, the possibility for no consumer buying pattern change even though trillions in wealth gone. << yes, they continue to rationalize and will not give up hope, but spending patterns are being forced to change as consumers can only accumulate so much debt. Now even though they haven't given up hope in a miracle -- they have started belt-tightening as they have no choice. The CFZ crew are not average in this respect, IMO. J6P is leverage to the gills to get the good life he is told every day that he deserves -- spending just can't keep up. It has hit the wall and despite BLS machinations to the contrary -- J6P has less disposable current income. Trust me you won't see the spending coming back from here -- doesn't matter how high the NAZ goes ... we're in for a multi-month (year, I think) retrenchment.

To: JRI who wrote (96118)	4/18/2001 11:10:22 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

Re. the dollar: Remember it is 'changes' in factors you sight, not static numbers. So, although Europe will have structural disadvantages to the states for our lifetime [and probably longer], if they lessen [which they have been and are], it is actually bearish for the dollar. I think there are plenty of argument here for Europe becoming relatively more attractive for quite some time. Also, IMO lots of the strength in the dollar [and equity markets for that matter] are simply people going to where the performance has been... that may or may not last and IMO is no reason to think it will continue... in fact the contrary, I believe. DAK DAK