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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (12363)	4/20/2001 1:45:52 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78753

I'll put P on my watch list, American Spirit. There seems to be a divergence of analysts' opinions on Phillips Petroleum, according to what I read. Some say P overpaid for Tosco; plus, with this pending acquisition they've suddenly and dramatically changed what they said was their strategy. (They moved toward marketing/refining and away from their E&P.) Others say that the acquisition will add balance to P and make them a bigger player and better able to compete with the (other) majors. If I recall correctly, the guy running Tosco is considered one fabulous businessman, and he will be on the P BOD after the merger. Anyway, I'm of the opinion that the stock is being held back by the flux the merger is causing. I'll assume that the merger will be approved and completed. P seems to have been a mediocre investment in the past. But with the merger behind it (i.e. businesses integrated in a couple of years), and with the synergy and strength which P could/might/maybe/should find from that merger, and with gas/oil sustaining their high prices, I could see P achieve new highs. I'm not sharp enough to do the numbers on P or it's competitors. I don't know what P's important numbers are or where they stand or where they will be after the merger. (These stocks trade on multiples of cash flow, do they not? Or maybe on their reserves in the ground?) American Spirit, you say you are waiting for the next fed cut to maybe buy P. Are you expecting the price of P to go lower until then, or maybe you believe the next rate cut (assuming there is one) will be a catalyst to propel the stock from its current levels? Anybody else here follow P or with an opinion on it to share?