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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (1060)	4/19/2001 7:54:20 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

MrGreenJeans re<<<<With the markets moving in asymmetric patterns in recent years what makes you think we will not be at new highs sooner? I would agree with your statement if the market moves were more symmetric, gaining 10% per year for x number of years, but with these rate cuts we may be looking at 3000 faster than most forecast.>>> Certainly we can reach 3000 relatively fast given the extreme rapidity of of the bear going to the 1600's. However when I look at potential new highs I am looking at the fundamentals and the history of the highs. The NASDAQ did not rise as a run of the mill bull market. It reached new highs in a manic bubble reminiscent of tuliipmania. From a fundamental basis I don't look at the 5048 high as any type of legitimate high that should be exceeded in the next bull. If I would have sat in tulips stubbornly waiting for a return to the highs before selling, I would have been waiting until tulips were growing over my grave at some point. So I can't predict a reasonable date on when the NASDAQ will hit new highs a more normal valuation and earnings will be a lot more meaningful in considering this and just not considering that 5048 happened to be the number before the bubble burst. So more than just a year or wo makes sense to me. Also if the bubble bursting ushered in a secular bear taking a decade can not be ruled out as cyclical bulls can be powerful but may not get us to new highs in the NASDAQ. Marc