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To: John Doyle who wrote (96289)	4/19/2001 1:30:03 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

i think it may have begun already. note that both credit card and mortgage delinquencies have been rising sharply over the past quarter, and the rate of dissaving as well as the recent explosion in refis and consumer credit suggest Ponzi finance at work, i.e. robbing Peter to pay Paul essentially. borrowing money for recurring expenditures... note that the ability to service the debt also hinges on OTHER costs that are borne by the consumer. we have utility bills, medical insurance (as well as other insurance areas - even car insurance is getting more expensive), rents, gasoline, all increasing sharply. this is due to a decade of statist intervention and the resulting imbalances. it would be fine if incomes were to rise at a similar pace, but such is not the case. month after month a gap between income and spending is reported...clearly an unsustainable trend, that will reverse either by the consumer cutting back (this is imo already happening...just look at the sudden reduction in the trade deficit in spite of soaring energy imports), or by wages rising sharply, inducing a further spiral of price rises.