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To: MeDroogies who wrote (3109)	4/19/2001 1:50:10 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi MeDroogies, Hope you had a good time. Looks like you brought the spirit of 'Pamplona' back with you. LOL. regards Kastel

To: MeDroogies who wrote (3109)	4/19/2001 2:08:27 PM
From: pezz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<psychology and sociology (as far as I'm concerned and I know this will piss off alot of people...but it's an opinion) are "soft sciences".>> You could have been more accurate said "Bull S**t" and it wouldn't have pissed me off.... Sorry, sorry Non'o my business sorry to intrude. Sometimes I can't help myself from posting irrelevant drivel

To: MeDroogies who wrote (3109)	4/19/2001 2:26:16 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Medroogies, 'because psychology and sociology (as far as I'm concerned and I know this will piss off alot of people...but it's an opinion) are "soft sciences".' Yes, I too, should have commented on that pearl. Again we have found some common ground LOL. Soft sciences are of course only as good as the interpreter, and of course some witch doctors are better than others :0). regards Kastel

To: MeDroogies who wrote (3109)	4/19/2001 7:31:08 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi MeDroogies, <<One of the difficulties that economists face is the need to engage psychographic and sociological information to help define "how things work". This is very unfortunate, because psychology and sociology (as far as I'm concerned and I know this will piss off alot of people...but it's an opinion) are "soft sciences". That is, they engage in broad definitions and generalizations.>> I agree with this statement, but advise that we all try to live with sciences, interpretations, and such, soft or otherwise, because that is how the world works. We do not need to debate or lament the softness vs. hardness of psychology and economics, because, compared to physics, it is all soft and soggily wet. <<Economics is often assigned to the "soft science" category because of its reliance on these things, as well. However, much of economics is very quantifiable and well defined.>> If one wanted to, one can actually quantify psychology and make it a semi hard science, though the end product, or tepid science, will be open to many different interpretations, just as in economics. Trying to make economics out to be a hard science is not crucial to ones understanding of the world. <<It is difficult to build dynamic models (though they have been built) that mimic human behavior accurately (if at all)>> If such a model is not built by myself, I will not believe in it anyway, and thus the risk of betting on being always right, as opposed to betting on being possibly wrong. Now, to your central belief, without regard to soft vs hard of economics ... <<Well, in this sense - if people are willing to pay a price, then that price is justified and rational, regardless of whether it appears irrational after the fact. Decisions are made based on so many factors, that singling one out as the "prime mover" is often impossible.>> I agree with every cell in my body, and in fact would discuss vigorously with anyone who disagrees. I would not limit this "soft rationality" to only the buy side, but also apply it to the sell side ... as in folks sell at whatever price deemed rational and later judged to be irrational. Bubbles do have mirror images, they do blowup, and lowering of interest rate, or machine gunning locusts, while psychologically pleasing, has very limited economic utility. I will save some trouble in this line of discussion by stating for any dissenters that "But Jay, greed always and eventually overpowers fear, and in the long term, good stocks go up". Fine, I will wait, as you apparently are as well. And I am waiting to go short and hard. I am learning as well. Chugs, Jay