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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (45600)	4/19/2001 3:56:15 PM
From: pompsander	Respond to of 70976

Kirk, your points on the difference between now and January are all solid. Also, consumer confidence has improved and mfg. looking better. Only downside is unemployment, but layoffs in tech are old news. CSCO true capitulation, with huge writedowns, was the key in my view.

To: Kirk © who wrote (45600)	4/19/2001 4:31:45 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

[World DRAM Price] Daily Spot Prices of DRAMs Rise; First in 8 Months April 18, 2001 (TOKYO) -- Daily spot prices of DRAM microchips showed an increase for the first time in eight months. Since the end of March, the DRAM spot prices were higher than contract prices on a daily basis, and if the situation persists, it is likely that the prices of DRAMs for large users will rise. According to the world DRAM price survey conducted by ICIS-LOR, the moving average prices of 128Mb DRAMs (PC 133, 16Mb x 8) for large users during the 30-day period of March 1-30, 2001 were US$4.84 in North America, US$4.15 in Europe, and US$4.51 in Asia. Compared with DRAM prices for the 30-day period ending March 23, the prices for large users declined 4.24 percent in North America, fell 2.24 percent in Europe, and fell 7.03 percent in Asia. ICIS-LOR has offices in London, Houston and Singapore. As for memory modules, spot prices of 128MB DIMMs (PC133) rose 6.45 percent from the previous week to US$32.53 in North America, rose 3.33 percent to US$33.94 in Europe, and increased 4.39 percent to US$33.27 in Asia. Table: 30-Day Rolling Averages of 128Mb DRAMs (PC133, 16M x 8) March 1-30, 2001 (survey by ICIS-LOR)Area Contract price Week-on-week comparison North America US$4.84 -4.24% Europe US$4.15 -2.24% Asia US$4.51 -7.03% *Week-on-week comparison is the comparison with the 30-day rolling averages of Feb. 22-March 23, 2001. Previous story:Daily Spot Prices of Microchips Show Signs of Rising (Tamao Kikuchi, Nikkei Market Access)

To: Kirk © who wrote (45600)	4/19/2001 6:53:39 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

UTEK is irrelevant to any discussion of the general business situation. The fundamentals are worse now then in January, but the "expectation" spin put on it is better. LRCX is a good example. Orders have fallen more steeply than Bagley can remember. This must be the worst it can get, he concludes, and the market takes it as a positive. Prices on the stocks I like are up 50% from recent lows and I don't believe fundamentals support them going much higher. If I were certain of rational market behavior, I would be aiming for 100% cash in my investment accounts. As it is, I am aiming for 45%.