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To: Poet who wrote (10512)	4/19/2001 5:44:33 PM
From: jjetstream	Respond to of 10876

waaaaaaahhheeeeeeeeeyyyyyyyyyyyyyy....the party continues....................

To: Poet who wrote (10512)	4/20/2001 1:07:22 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 10876

Speaking of 1999. Just had a thought about the ENERGY CRISIS. (long term bearish view on stocks in that sector). Anyone remember the Y2K scare and how we would be put into recession as Ed Yardeni predicted. What happened? Overspent on technology in anticipation of the Y2K problem. Now we have a post spending pause....tech companies were unprepared for this. Too much capacity and not enough demand...price pressures in the marketplace for tech.. Here is the case I want to make about energy crisis: Now the paranoia has been building up for the serious energy shortages. Everyone knows about it; people are working on it; companies are gearing up to build power plants; alternative sources etc. etc. Surprise---No energy problem! The scare works just like Y2K. ..because the wheels were in motion to resolve. Even though CA is slow, they will fix it sooner or later. In other areas, I am sure they are already ensuring they don't face the problem. In another words, they won't be blindsided the CA was. What happens next again parallels technology. Too much supply of energy as whole as well as alternative sources get competitive with the traditional ones and capacity overbuilt....guess what...low prices!! Still see development of non-fossil fuels and sooner or later it gets going. Seems too similiar to Y2K, IMHO. However, in that case, the economy benefits with lower cost of energy, basically the reverse of the Y2K tech spending "bubble". BTW--just a thought out of nowhere to re-consider my old bullish thoughts about energy. Never looked at it from this angle. Still a bit bullish on natural gas but reconsidering my time horizons. I realize the parallels I draw may be flawed in some ways but overall the posibility of history repeating is there, IMHO.