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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (75513)	4/19/2001 4:21:15 PM
From: JH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<... it will take a lot longer to cure our troubles economically than it has in recent years ... it takes time to cure a mess like this ... and we have not yet reached the overall recession itself> Are you referring to the possibility of deflation (or stagflation) due to structural problems in the global economy (overcapacity, overinvestment in TNT, etc)? Yes, the US is susceptible to the contagion, which are mostly foreign in origin, but the evidence so far suggests that it has not (or not yet?) destabilized the US in a critical way. What is the anecdotal evidence which suggests that your belief in a protracted US recession will materialize? The evidence so far (2Q corporate earnings, plus future guidance) suggests that the outlook is not as dire as what the bears (Steven Roach, MSDW, come to mind) are suggesting. In your belief, what will cause the downfall of the US economy, and why do you believe that monetary policy is impotent in fighting the "problem" ?