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To: Shack who wrote (96526)	4/19/2001 6:55:09 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

scroll down here for a really long term view: sharelynx.net note how the '93 rally (which saw the XAU go over 150) BEGAN with a lease rate spike, and ENDED with another one in '96 (that came shortly before the top). note also how the size of the spikes gets ever larger...a sign that the carry trade is increasingly in distress and faced with problems when attempting to locate fresh material to borrow. now that all the third world CBs have been relieved of their reserves it's getting even more difficult. even if one believes the lowest estimates for the size of the carry (and those estimates are NOT credible, since they contradict what we know about the total derivatives exposure) and deducts the miners able to deliver and not subject to margin calls it is simply impossible to cover the carry trade's exposure without a major market dislocation. as everything in the 90's, this has also become an incredible excess.